Sunday, September 23, 2012

Obama in 2012? Reluctantly Yes

I have voted in every national election since 1980, but have never voted for the Democrat candidate for President.   Even after I became disenchanted with the Republican party, I still voted for John McCain over Barack Obama.   This time around, I may vote to re-elect President Obama for the simple reason that he has been a better president that I expected and because the Republican alternative is so unappealing.   Here is my thinking.  Please feel free to point out where I am wrong.

1.   President Obama Did Not Make the Economy Worse

It may take some effort for people to think back all the way to September 2008.    For me, it helped that I recently watched the film "Too Big to Fail," which chronicled the Bush administration's efforts to stem the complete collapse of the economy.    At one point in the movie, Ben Bernanke says, "If we do not act boldly and immediately, we will replay the depression of the 1930s, only this time it will be far, far worse."   That is where the Republican strategy of deregulation and tax cuts led us--to the brink of another Great Depression.   To their credit, the trio of Hank Paulsen, Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner did act boldly and immediately.   However, the economy was still teetering on the brink when President Obama took office in January 2009.   Shortly after he took office, the government stepped in to save Chrysler and GM, thus preserving millions of jobs.   Whether the president has presided over an increase or decrease in jobs depends on how you slice the numbers.   From January 2009 to June 2012, the number of jobs in the economy is down by about 400,000.   However, if you measure from September 2009 to June 2012, the economy is up 3.3 million jobs.   (I am relying on BLS statistics summarized on Wikipedia).    If you accept that the economy was in freefall in January 2009 when Barack Obama took office, the numbers certainly seem to indicate that within eight months of taking office, he began to turn things around.   

2.  Obama Care Is Not Such a Bad Thing

With all the hoopla about Obama care, you'd think it would have a major impact.   However, it seems that the worst fears have not come to pass.   There has not been a federal takeover of healthcare and the government is not rationing health care.   So far, Obama Care has had the following effects on me:   I can keep my kids on my policy until they turn 26; I don't have to worry about my younger daughter being denied health insurance because she had a heart murmur as an infant; and we received a $300 repeat from our insurance company because their administrative costs were too high.   The only effects I can see have been positive.

3.   Osama Bin Laden Is Dead

President Bush tried for seven years to bring Osama Bin Laden to justice.   President Obama succeeded in his first term.   Granted, President Obama did not lead lead the assault.   However, he did authorize it despite the fact that he knew the Pakistanis would be furious about the fact that we conducted a military operation on their territory without telling them.    The President made the difficult call and he deserves credit for it.

4.   President Obama's Mid-East Policy Is No Worse Than His Predecessors

Ever since World War II, we have struggled between supporting reliable allies and our own ideals of popular sovereignty.   Realpolitik has led us to support brutal dictators who could be counted on as allies of convenience.   To our everlasting shame, we overthrew democratically elected governments in favor of autocrats.    Thus, when the Arab Spring broke out, the President had some difficult decisions.   In Egypt, we stood behind Hosni Mubarak longer than we should have, but eventually got out of the way.   In Libya, we intervened against the corrupt Gadafi only after our European and Arab allies were willing to put some skin in the game.   On the other hand, our silence in Bahrain, where doctors were arrested for treating demonstrators, was deafening.    In Syria, I would like to see us take a more aggressive stance against the Assad regime.   However, the invasion of Iraq didn't work out so well for us.   On top of that, Assad is still supported by Russia, China, Iran and Hezbollah.    Finally, President Obama followed through on President Bush's commitment to remove our forces from Iraq.   The President's Mid-East performance hasn't  been perfect, but it has been pretty good given the hand he was dealt.

5.   Irrational Hatred Against President Obama Pisses Me Off

President Obama has been the subject of more unfounded hysteria since George W. Bush.  We are turning into a country where the lunatic fringe has been empowered like a werewolf under a full moon.   I have heard people insist with all sincerity that the President is forming a private army that will install him as dictator, that the President was going to sign a UN treaty on July 27 that would abolish private ownership of firearms and that Mr. Obama hates America based on photoshopped photos purporting to show him not placing his hand over his heart during the national anthem.  On top of that, the printer of a bumpersticker that says "2012:   Don't Re-Nig" claims that this is not a racist sentiment.  Yeah, right.    For the conspiracy theorists, all evidence as well as all lack of evidence points to the conclusion that Barack Obama is a foreign-born Muslim who hates America and wants to impose a socialist dictatorship.    Of course, if President Obama really was that bad, he would not tolerate their ravings and they would have been placed in FEMA internment camps a long time ago.  Of course, the First Amendment allows them to loudly and vehemently express their beliefs.  While I support their exercise of their First Amendment freedoms, it doesn't mean that they don't piss me off and make me want to do the exact opposite.   So there.

6.  Mitt Romney Is An Empty Suit

I don't know what the Republicans were thinking when they nominated Mitt Romney, the poster child for hypocrisy.    As governor of Massachusetts, Romney was pro-choice and designed the model for Obama Care.   Now, he is aggressively pro-life and thinks Obama Care is a threat to the continued existence of our nation.    In my mind, someone who will say anything to get elected will govern according to expediency and not according to any set of principles.   As a result, we don't know if a President Romney would be the liberal blue state governor, the tea party apostle or some new and unrecognizable persona.   Whether or not you like President Obama, at least he doesn't change his beliefs as often as he changes his underwear.

7.   Romney Doesn't Have  a Clue About the Economy

Tax cuts and de-regulation almost led us into a new Great Depression.   What does Mitt Romney propose?   Tax cuts and de-regulation.   The Laffer Curve predicted that when taxes reached an excessive point that the government could raise revenue by decreasing taxes.    However, it also predicted that when taxes dropped below the sweet spot on the curve that tax cuts would lead to a decrease in revenue.    Marginal tax rates and taxes as a percentage of gross domestic product are at historically low levels.   While I don't like paying more taxes any more than the next guy, I think we will have to raise taxes and cut spending in order to reduce the deficit.   Romney's tax cut plan is also notable for its vapidness.   Romney proposes to reduce taxes across the board while reducing loopholes to pay for it.   Of course, by loopholes, he means deductions benefitting the middle class, such as the home mortgage deduction and the charitable giving deduction.   Additionally, leading economists have concluded that eliminating all tax deductions would not be sufficient to offset the lost revenue from the proposed cuts.    Does Romney even have a plan for curbing entitlement spending?   Both candidates accuse the other one of seeking to gut social security and Medicare.    However, if we don't do something, we face national bankruptcy.    Paul Ryan's plan to replace Medicare with vouchers pegged to a nominal level of inflation (and use the savings to cut taxes) was at least a proposal.   My understanding is that Romney rejects the Ryan plan and doesn't have one of his own.      

8.   Romney Is An Out of Touch Rich Guy

Romney makes his money from capital gains and has a vacation home in New Hampshire.   I support my family by working to bring home a paycheck.    While I don't have a vacation home, my office sometimes seems like a second residence.    Romney's wife entered a $3 million dressage horse in the Olympics.   We have strays we adopted whose main talents consist of eating and sleeping.  Last year Romney earned $10 million after taxes.    It would take me about 100 years to equal that despite the fact that my earnings place me at the extreme upper end of the middle class.    Is this criticism unfair?    Possibly, but when President Obama's critics point out that he can't understand you and me because he was raised in Hawaii and Indonesia and obtained an Ivy League education before obtaining celebrity status, it's fair to look at the other guy's sympatico quotient.  I can't imagine myself drinking a beer with either one of them (of course, I don't drink beer any more so that might have something to do with it).   

Does President Obama give me a thrill up my leg?    No.    Was he my first choice this year?   No.   Will I vote for him anyway?   Probably.  

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