The Syrian Dilemma

The current situation in Syria poses a no-win situation for the United States.    On the one hand, the Syrian regime is supported by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.   The rebel forces are supported by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but draw their most effective fighting strength from groups linked to al-Qaeda.   Within the U.S. opinion is mixed.   Sen. John McCain has been a staunch advocate of intervening on the rebel side, while some right wing groups have accused President Obama of treason for providing support to the Syrian opposition (on the theory that the same groups that attacked our consulate in Benghazi are active in Syria).    

A Little History
 

Things were a lot simpler forty years ago during the Cold War.   A country was either on our side or allied with the Soviet Union.    In the Middle East, Israel was our friend and the Arab states were in the Soviet camp.   Today Israel is still our friend, but the Arab/Muslim countries are no longer monolithic.  

1973 is a good example of the way things used to be.   On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria invaded Israel.   Libya, Saudi Arabia and the other Arab oil-producing states imposed an oil embargo to place pressure on the West.    However, the failure of the invasion ultimately led to the 1978 Camp David Accords in which Egypt recognized Israel.   Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. 

Meanwhile the Soviet Union was losing influence in the Middle East.   In 1979, the USSR invaded Afghanistan.    The United States and Saudi Arabia provided support to the mujahideen who fought against the Russians.   The Russians pulled out of Afghanistan by 1989 and by 1991, the Soviet Union itself disintegrated.    During the Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991, the United States came to the aid of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.     Egypt, Syria, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all supported the coalition against Iraq.

1991-94 marked the high water mark of U.S. influence in the Middle East.    Our allies Egypt and Jordan had signed peace treaties with Israel.   We had good relations with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.    The only countries that truly hated us were Iran and Iraq (who also hated each other), Libya and Syria.    It was a far cry from 1973, when the Saudis had agreed to use oil as an economic weapon in support of the Egyptian-Syrian invasion of Israel.    

The Current Situation

Since that time, Muslim unity is a thing of the past, as Sunnis and Shiites hate each other almost as much as they hate Israel, and hostility toward the United States lurks beneath the surface of our nominal allies.    The Sunni-Shiite divide is illustrated by a passage from Jill Carroll's account of being held hostage by Sunni terrorists in Iraq.   

There was no mistaking that the mujahideen who held me hated America. "One day, hopefully, one day, America, all of America gone," said one of my guards early in my captivity. He spread his hands out wide as if to wipe America off the map.

"I don't quite understand," I said. "All America?"

My female jailer Um Ali, listening in on the conversation, translated the sentiment into simpler Arabic for me. "No journalists, no people, no nothing," she said.

I could also see that Shiites were high on their list of enemies. Once, when attempting to explain the historical split between Sunnis and Shiites, Abu Nour, the leader of my captors, stopped himself after he referred to "Shiite Muslims."

"No, they are not Muslims," Ink Eyes said. "Anyone who asks for things from people that are dead, and not [from] Allah, he is not a Muslim."

He was referring to Shiites appealing to long-dead Islamic leaders to intercede with God, asking for miracles such as curing the sick. It's a practice similar to that of Catholics praying to saints.

But after the Feb. 22 bombing of the Askariya Shrine, and rampant Sunni-Shiite killing, nearly every captor I came into contact with would tell me about their hate for Shiites first. Abu Nour now simply referred to them as "dogs."

You can find the link here.  

The Sunni-Shiite divide is made worse by geography and politics.    Shiites are a minority within Islam, comprising just 10-20% of the total.   However, they are the majority in Iran and Iraq.   While they are a minority in Syria, the government of Bashar Assad is drawn from the Alawite sect of Shia Islam.    The Hezbollah militia in Lebanon is also Shiite.    Bahrain is a majority Shiite country, although it is ruled by a Sunni monarchy.    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are majority Sunni.    Al Qaeda is drawn from the Salafist Jihadi faction of Sunni Islam.    Al Qaeda has declared war on "Crusaders, Zionists and apostates."   Among the apostate category are liberal Muslims, Shias, Sufis and the Saudi royal family.  

Meanwhile, popular opinion amongst our erstwhile allies is virulently anti-American.   In Eqypt, both the Muslim Brotherhood and the pro-military factions accuse the United States of supporting their opponents.   According to a 2004 survey, 98% of Egyptians held a negative view of the United States, along with 94% of Saudis and 73% in the United Arab Emirates.   Angry mobs in Afghanistan and Pakistan chant death to America for a variety of reasons from drone strikes to YouTube clips insulting to Islam.  

The Fight for Syria

The fight for Syria is a diverse, multi-party struggle.   On one side is most of the Shiite world (excluding the Bahrainis).    Then there are the Saudis and the Gulf States who want to rein in the power of Iran.   The al-Qaeda based groups want to dominate the majority Sunni population.   Finally, there are the secularists and moderates who began the uprising and lead various exile councils, but don't seem to have much real power.   While the Saudis, jihadists and moderates are all united in their desire to overthrow Bashar Assad, it seems likely that their alliance is largely one of convenience which will unwind once they obtain their immediate goal.  

Opposing Iranian ambitions is a worthy goal for American foreign policy.   However, we should not be under the illusion that we have any friends in the Syrian conflict.  While we may try to influence the outcome, we should not give our wholehearted support to any group.