Two Coalitions Composed of Many Factions
Except for George
Washington's first term and the Era of Good Feelings (from 1816-1824), this
country’s government has been organized around political parties, and in
particular, a two-party political system. However, these
parties are actually coalitions of groups and interests. In
practice, what we have is a multi-party system in which the candidates are
winnowed down to two in party primaries and those candidates compete for
support from a considerable bloc of independent voters. When a party's coalition can no longer hold
together, the party splits or fades away. We have seen this
before when the Democrat-Republican Party divided into the Democrats and the
Whigs and the Federalist Party went away and when the Whigs gave way to the
Republicans. We have also seen new coalitions arise when one party
picks off groups that previously supported the other party. This
happened in the 1930s when Franklin Roosevelt built a coalition based on white
Southerners, blacks, Jews, ethnic Catholics, organized labor, urban machines,
progressive intellectuals and populist farmers. This
coalition largely stayed in place until 1980 when Ronald Reagan built a
coalition based around the Southern, Midwestern and Western states which
included many of the ethnic Catholics and farmers who had previously supported
the Democratic Party and evangelical Christians who had largely been apolitical
before.
The Republican Coalition
Since 1980, the
Republican coalition has evolved into a grouping of
ideologies. The oldest of these is the pro-business faction
which dates back to the late 1800s and is characterized by Calvin Coolidge's
pronouncement that "the business of America is business."
The pro-business faction favors limited government regulation of business,
but favors government assistance to business and an aggressive foreign
policy. George W. Bush's TARP program is a good example of a pro-business
Republican policy. The pro-business group is also known as the
establishment Republicans and includes a belief in good government.
A second strain of Republican ideology is social conservatism.
This group was energized by the 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade which mandated abortion on demand. This
group is also motivated by opposition to homosexuality and a desire to return
this country to an overt emphasis on Christian values (just not the parts
having to do with social justice). The third major strain is the
anti-government, anti-elite faction exemplified by the Tea Party. In
some ways, this group is a throwback to the Anti-Masonic Party of the early
1800s which believed that the Freemasons were a shadowy conspiracy to enslave
the country. The Tea Party opposes most government programs,
favors reduction in taxes and opposes American involvement in foreign countries.
The Second Amendment/militia movement which believes that Americans need to arm
themselves to defend against an oppressive government is part of this strain.
These three ideologies come together on some issues but diverge on
others. For example, both the pro-business and social conservative
factions are perfectly willing to employ government to advance their agendas
while the anti-government group almost uniformly wants less government (so long
as you don't touch their Social Security).
The Democrat Coalition
The Democrat
coalition is much more of an assortment of interest groups organized around the
general belief that government can improve the position of their group.
The Democrat coalition includes racial and ethnic minorities (blacks,
Hispanics, Asians), the remnants of organized labor, unmarried women (who
supported President Obama by a 39 point margin in 2012), the LGBT community, certain
religious groups (liberal Catholics and Protestants and Jews) and urban
dwellers. It is worth noting that in extremely red Texas,
President Obama carried four of the five largest counties (Dallas, Harris,
Bexar and Travis, although in fairness, Harris County was essentially a tie).
Hispanics and the LGBT community are examples of groups which,
like evangelical Christians, were not previously engaged in prior years.
Because Democrats are composed of disparate interest groups, they
frequently fight amongst themselves. For example, organized labor has
traditionally opposed immigration reform while Hispanics and liberal Christian
groups have favored it.
Will the Republican Coalition Hold Together?
I wonder whether the
Republican coalition will hold, and if not, what will take its
place. In the 1980s, I used to hear the refrain, "I didn't
leave the Democratic Party, the party left me." These days I am
hearing that refrain more and more from ex-Republicans (including myself).
In my opinion, a coalition can only hold so long as its members are
willing to accommodate their disparate views. Blacks, Hispanics
and organized labor are all competitors within the Democrat structure but
manage to put aside their differences on election day. On the other
hand, social conservatives and the Tea Party have declared war on the
pro-business/establishment faction. It is not enough to be
extremely conservative; a candidate must be ideologically pure to avoid a
primary challenge. While John Cornyn is one of the most conservative
members of the U.S. Senate, there was an active effort to mount a primary
challenge against him for failure to sufficiently support Ted Cruz's effort to
defund Obamacare. The threat of a primary challenge is enough for
establishment/good government Republicans to mute themselves when the bomb
throwers in the party engage in government shutdowns and other
shenanigans.
If the social
conservatives and anti-government elements succeed in purging the establishment
Republicans, I sincerely doubt that the establishment group will continue to
support the party. However, where would they go?
One
possibility is that they will simply stay home, let the Democrats win a few
elections and then re-join the party. During the 1960s and 1970s, the
Democrat Party moved far to the left, causing it to lose the presidential
elections of 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988. In 1992, a centrist
Democrat led the party to victory. This could happen if the Republican
party succeeds in purifying itself into a minority position.
Another intriguing possibility is that some Republicans will run as
independents. One intriguing analysis suggested that if twenty
Northeastern Republican Congressmen successfully ran as independents, they
would hold the balance of power in the House. There are currently three
independents in the Senate. These individuals (Bernie Sanders, Angus
King and Joe Liebermann) are all big personalities in small states and are an exception
to the normal rules of party domination. However, I don't think this is
likely to happen in any significant numbers. Generally, party members will
prefer keeping their safe seats until they perceive a serious threat. Because
the major parties make it difficult for outsiders to qualify for the ballot,
incumbents have a real incentive to stick with their existing party. Unless a number of Congressmen feel
sufficiently at risk in the primaries, there are unlikely to be more than a
handful of independent candidacies. Thus, the self-interest of the
incumbency weighs against this possibility.
I doubt that many
Republicans will switch to the Democratic Party. The gulf between the
parties is just too great. Also there
have been a number of cases where individuals switched parties and then lost
their primary in the new party.
The final prospect
is that there is a new realignment between the parties. The
eternally optimistic hope for the emergence of a centrist third party which
will draw on disaffected Republicans and Democrats. Historically, America
has not been able to sustain a viable third party for more than a single
election cycle (e.g., 1860, 1912, 1948, 1992). However, England and
Mexico are able to maintain a three party system. Mexico is a
good example of the evolution of politics.
For 70 years, Mexico essentially had one party rule. Today, three parties compete at both the
national and the local level. If our
neighbors to the South could pull this off in the face of an entrenched
political establishment perhaps it is possible here as well.
