Will the Republican Coalition Hold?

Two Coalitions Composed of Many Factions

Except for George Washington's first term and the Era of Good Feelings (from 1816-1824), this country’s government has been organized around political parties, and in particular, a two-party political system.    However, these parties are actually coalitions of groups and interests.  In practice, what we have is a multi-party system in which the candidates are winnowed down to two in party primaries and those candidates compete for support from a considerable bloc of independent voters.  When a party's coalition can no longer hold together, the party splits or fades away.    We have seen this before when the Democrat-Republican Party divided into the Democrats and the Whigs and the Federalist Party went away and when the Whigs gave way to the Republicans.   We have also seen new coalitions arise when one party picks off groups that previously supported the other party.   This happened in the 1930s when Franklin Roosevelt built a coalition based on white Southerners, blacks, Jews, ethnic Catholics, organized labor, urban machines, progressive intellectuals and populist farmers.    This coalition largely stayed in place until 1980 when Ronald Reagan built a coalition based around the Southern, Midwestern and Western states which included many of the ethnic Catholics and farmers who had previously supported the Democratic Party and evangelical Christians who had largely been apolitical before.

The Republican Coalition

 

Since 1980, the Republican coalition has evolved into a grouping of ideologies.    The oldest of these is the pro-business faction which dates back to the late 1800s and is characterized by Calvin Coolidge's pronouncement that "the business of America is business."    The pro-business faction favors limited government regulation of business, but favors government assistance to business and an aggressive foreign policy.  George W. Bush's TARP program is a good example of a pro-business Republican policy.   The pro-business group is also known as the establishment Republicans and includes a belief in good government.    A second strain of Republican ideology is social conservatism.   This group was energized by the 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade which mandated abortion on demand.    This group is also motivated by opposition to homosexuality and a desire to return this country to an overt emphasis on Christian values (just not the parts having to do with social justice).   The third major strain is the anti-government, anti-elite faction exemplified by the Tea Party.   In some ways, this group is a throwback to the Anti-Masonic Party of the early 1800s which believed that the Freemasons were a shadowy conspiracy to enslave the country.    The Tea Party opposes most government programs, favors reduction in taxes and opposes American involvement in foreign countries. The Second Amendment/militia movement which believes that Americans need to arm themselves to defend against an oppressive government is part of this strain.   These three ideologies come together on some issues but diverge on others.   For example, both the pro-business and social conservative factions are perfectly willing to employ government to advance their agendas while the anti-government group almost uniformly wants less government (so long as you don't touch their Social Security). 

The Democrat Coalition

  

The Democrat coalition is much more of an assortment of interest groups organized around the general belief that government can improve the position of their group.   The Democrat coalition includes racial and ethnic minorities (blacks, Hispanics, Asians), the remnants of organized labor, unmarried women (who supported President Obama by a 39 point margin in 2012), the LGBT community, certain religious groups (liberal Catholics and Protestants and Jews) and urban dwellers.    It is worth noting that in extremely red Texas, President Obama carried four of the five largest counties (Dallas, Harris, Bexar and Travis, although in fairness, Harris County was essentially a tie).    Hispanics and the LGBT community are examples of groups which, like evangelical Christians, were not previously engaged in prior years.    Because Democrats are composed of disparate interest groups, they frequently fight amongst themselves.   For example, organized labor has traditionally opposed immigration reform while Hispanics and liberal Christian groups have favored it.  

Will the Republican Coalition Hold Together?

 

I wonder whether the Republican coalition will hold, and if not, what will take its place.   In the 1980s, I used to hear the refrain, "I didn't leave the Democratic Party, the party left me."   These days I am hearing that refrain more and more from ex-Republicans (including myself).   In my opinion, a coalition can only hold so long as its members are willing to accommodate their disparate views. Blacks, Hispanics and organized labor are all competitors within the Democrat structure but manage to put aside their differences on election day.   On the other hand, social conservatives and the Tea Party have declared war on the pro-business/establishment faction.    It is not enough to be extremely conservative; a candidate must be ideologically pure to avoid a primary challenge.  While John Cornyn is one of the most conservative members of the U.S. Senate, there was an active effort to mount a primary challenge against him for failure to sufficiently support Ted Cruz's effort to defund Obamacare.   The threat of a primary challenge is enough for establishment/good government Republicans to mute themselves when the bomb throwers in the party engage in government shutdowns and other shenanigans.   

If the social conservatives and anti-government elements succeed in purging the establishment Republicans, I sincerely doubt that the establishment group will continue to support the party.  However, where would they go?    

One possibility is that they will simply stay home, let the Democrats win a few elections and then re-join the party.   During the 1960s and 1970s, the Democrat Party moved far to the left, causing it to lose the presidential elections of 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988.   In 1992, a centrist Democrat led the party to victory.  This could happen if the Republican party succeeds in purifying itself into a minority position.     

Another intriguing possibility is that some Republicans will run as independents.   One intriguing analysis suggested that if twenty Northeastern Republican Congressmen successfully ran as independents, they would hold the balance of power in the House.   There are currently three independents in the Senate.   These individuals (Bernie Sanders, Angus King and Joe Liebermann) are all big personalities in small states and are an exception to the normal rules of party domination.   However, I don't think this is likely to happen in any significant numbers.  Generally, party members will prefer keeping their safe seats until they perceive a serious threat. Because the major parties make it difficult for outsiders to qualify for the ballot, incumbents have a real incentive to stick with their existing party.   Unless a number of Congressmen feel sufficiently at risk in the primaries, there are unlikely to be more than a handful of independent candidacies.  Thus, the self-interest of the incumbency weighs against this possibility.   

I doubt that many Republicans will switch to the Democratic Party.  The gulf between the parties is just too great.  Also there have been a number of cases where individuals switched parties and then lost their primary in the new party.    

The final prospect is that there is a new realignment between the parties.    The eternally optimistic hope for the emergence of a centrist third party which will draw on disaffected Republicans and Democrats.   Historically, America has not been able to sustain a viable third party for more than a single election cycle (e.g., 1860, 1912, 1948, 1992).  However, England and Mexico are able to maintain a three party system.   Mexico is a good example of the evolution of politics.   For 70 years, Mexico essentially had one party rule.   Today, three parties compete at both the national and the local level.   If our neighbors to the South could pull this off in the face of an entrenched political establishment perhaps it is possible here as well.